Big Ideas in Tech for 2023- An a16z Omnibus를 읽고

Big Ideas in Tech for 2023: An a16z Omnibus | Andreessen Horowitz

From entertainment franchise games to the precision delivery of medicines, the a16z team highlights over 40 builder-worthy pursuits for the coming year.

https://a16z.com/2022/12/15/big-ideas-in-tech-2023/

Highlights

How can new technology such as generative AI create user experiences that facilitate deeper discussions and relationship building (between real humans — not bots!)?

• Note:
• generative AI가 사용자들의 컨텐츠를 수집 후, 토론할 만한 컨텐츠를 생성해주기
• chatGPT api로 사용자들의 대화를 인식해서 중립적인 discussion moderation
• 이전에 검색한 내용을 분석해서 고도화된 결과 보여주기
• 지금까지 작성한 모든 글을 분석해서, 다른 사용자의 분석 데이터와 비교 후 일치하는 비율이 높을 시 커피챗 매칭

We see two paths to a consumer health startup becoming the biggest company in the world: The first is a vertically integrated path of building a “payvidor” (a combined payor and provider) that eventually owns most care. Imagine UnitedHealth Group but with the UX of Apple — who wouldn’t choose this insurance plan and provider? The second is a horizontal path of building a consumer marketplace or infrastructure layer that enables all other care delivery companies. Imagine the Amazon or Visa of healthcare.

• Note: 인플레이션은 기업들로 하여금 생산성 증대 및 자동화 니즈를 더 앞당기게 할 것이다. 이를 통해 생산 비용(금전, 시간 등)이 낮춰지게 될 것이다. 생산 비용이 낮아지는 만큼 가격도 낮아질 것이고, 사람들은 이전보다 더 풍요로운 시대를 맞이하게 될 지도 모른다. 자연스래 평균 수명이나 위생/의료 수준은 높아질 것이고, 당연히 헬스케어 산업의 파이가 커질테다. 이중 누가 수직/수평으로 시장을 먹게 될까?

Production-Ready Generative AI for Every Type of Game Asset The biggest revolution to hit gaming in 2023 will be the creation of production-ready generative AI models for all asset types needed to produce a modern game. Games are currently the most complex form of entertainment, involving dozens of different types of creative assets combined in complex production pipelines. Asset types include 2D art, 3D models, textures, sound effects, music, characters, animations, level designs, cinematics, and more. And each of these asset types has its own highly specialized production process, with dedicated tools and artists. Generative AI today is getting the most attention for creating 2D images. But there’s a quiet revolution happening: scientists are working on AI models for all asset types. 3D models. Music. Sound FX. Much of this work is still at the research stage, but we’re seeing startups quickly forming around each model type with an aim of productizing the work. By the end of 2023, it’ll be possible to use a text prompt to generate virtually any asset needed to produce a game. “Sound effect of footsteps for a heavy woman in heels on gravel,” “3D model of a futuristic battle tank with a laser gun.” The effect of this will be to unlock creativity like we’ve never seen.

By creating partnerships with set pricing, CACs become more predictable

• Note: 디스콰이엇 클럽 B2B Sales 시 어필할 부분. 우리를 활용하면 CACs를 낮추고 예측 가능하게 운용할 수 있다.

Entertainment Franchise Games Will Explode

• Note: 게임은 모든 IP 산업의 종착지가 될 것이다. 왜냐면 가장 복잡하고 만들기 어려우니까, 근데 그걸 쉽게 만들 세상이 올테니까.

AI Native Games Game development is one of the first industries to experience significant disruption due to generative AI. New tools are already allowing artists and writers to offload the initial (and mechanical) spark of creation to generative models and to refocus their efforts on editing and refinement. But the AI innovations impacting players will be even more exciting than those that are benefiting developers. AI has continuously redefined what is possible in game design and gameplay experiences. I will always remember the initial frenetic excitement of Unreal Tournament botmatches, exploring the endless frontiers of Minecraft, and the unique thrill of a perfect Hades run — both the awe they evoked and the impact they had inspiring the next generation of games. What will be possible with a new generation of games designed natively for AI? We’ll see emergent, procedurally generated worlds, each populated with their own rich histories, inhabitants, and mysteries. There will be Interactive fiction where the stories continuously evolve through player choice, and are told through generative images, video, and audio. The possibilities are endless, and what is merely possible today will soon be ubiquitous.

• Note: 아마 앞으로의 게임, 특히 오픈월드 형식의 게임들은 정말 말 그대로 무한한 세계관을 가질 수 있을지도 모르겠다. 유저들이 생성하는 모든 데이터들이 세계관을 만드는 AI model을 학습시키고, 새로운 사건과 환경을 생성해 낼테니까 말이다. 상상만해도 흥미롭다.

Games Supplant Social Networks In 2023, I expect games to take the reins from social networks in new and meaningful ways. Games have always been strong social networks. Facebook and World of Warcraft both launched in 2004, and by the end of 2005, Facebook had roughly six million users and WoW had roughly five million. In each, long-term retention was caused by acts of reciprocity (pokes vs. guild gifts) and competition (vacation photos vs. armor sets). The longest-lasting games are social networks because they turn players into a more sustainable source of content than generating more levels, monsters, and quest lines. Today, games and social networks have become even more indistinguishable. Fortnite is built as a massively synchronous battle royale with a discrete winner, but it has become part of the zeitgeist not via balanced gunplay or map design, but because of self-expression via sharable/streamable avatars/emotes and team-based cooperation. This year, Ready Player Me inked thousands of partnerships with game developers to bring ultra-customizable avatars to millions of players. 2022 also saw the rise of Diablo Immortal, the first massively multiplayer online game (MMO) for millions of mobile-first gamers. In 2023, I expect players will spend even more time in games and virtual worlds hanging out and connecting with friends.

• Note: 분명 게임은 소셜 네트워크의 성질을 가지고 있다. 네트워크 효과도 분명히 있다. 하지만 내 생각엔 각 게임의 목적이 무엇이냐에 따라 갈릴 것 같다. 게임의 목적이 '재미 추구' 라면 플레이하는 행위에 좀 더 집중할 것이고, '경쟁' 이라면 다른 사람들의 실력보다 자신의 실력이 뛰어남을 증명하는 것이 되는 것 처럼 말이다. 만약 어떤 게임의 목적이 '다른 사람들과 연결' 이라면, 그 게임은 현대 소셜 네트워크 서비스를 대체할 가능성이 있을지도.